How to Read the Five-Year Revenue Waterfall

The five-year revenue trajectory is not just growth; it represents phase-wise value creation, with each year unlocking a new layer of scale and valuation logic.

Year 1 — Validation Year (Revenue ~USD 12–15M)

What Happens

  • Capital is deployed to launch 10 PRISM-enabled polyclinics
  • Clinics begin ramping only in the second half of the year
  • Docture Poly is used operationally; device revenues are minimal
  • No hospital has reached maturity

Financials (Illustrative)

  • Revenue: ~USD 12–15M
  • Net profit (~27%): ~USD 4M
  • EPS: ~USD 0.04

Investor Meaning

This year is about credibility, not magnitude.
Risk is highest, but visibility and execution proof are established by Month 9, justifying early investor entry at the lowest price point (~USD 10/share).

Year 2 — Transition Year (Revenue ~USD 45–55M)

What Happens

  • Polyclinics reach near maturity and contribute consistently
  • The first 300-bed hub hospital begins commissioning (partial-year contribution)
  • Docture Poly completes clinical and operational validationPoly is used operationally; device revenues are minimal

Financials

  • Revenue: ~USD 45–55M
  • Net profit: ~USD 14M
  • EPS: ~USD 0.18

Investor Meaning

Execution risk reduces materially.
This is where institutional investors begin to engage, and the share price rerates into the high-teens. The next funding round is priced significantly higher.

Year 3 — Inflection Year (Revenue ~USD 160M)

What Happens

  • The first hub hospital reaches ~70% occupancy
  • Clinics contribute a full year of stable revenue
  • Docture Poly adoption accelerates across clinics
  • Subscription economics become visible for the first time

Financials

  • Revenue: ~USD 160M
  • Net profit: ~USD 45M
  • EPS: ~USD 0.45

Investor Meaning

This is the valuation inflection point.
The company transitions from “promise” to a proven operating platform, supporting a share price of ~USD 30.

Year 4 — Replication & Operating Leverage (Revenue ~USD 300–350M)

What Happens

  • The first hub Four hub hospitals are operational in Indiareaches ~70% occupancy
  • Docture Poly device and subscriptions scale approximately 10×
  • Clinics, hospitals, and devices reinforce each other economically

Financials

  • Revenue: ~USD 300–350M
  • Net profit: ~USD 90M
  • EPS: ~USD 0.90

Investor Meaning

Margins expand, operating leverage is visible, and valuation multiples improve.
At this stage, SGP × Novadigm is no longer valued as a healthcare operator but as a healthcare platform.

Year 5 — Platform & Global Scale (Revenue ~USD 750M, Conservative)

What Happens

  • Indian hospitals operate at scale
  • The first large US hospital becomes operational
  • Docture Poly subscriptions scale ~100× vs Year 3
  • International ARPU is 3–4× higher than India

Financials

  • Revenue: ~USD 750M (conservative)
  • Net profit: ~USD 200–210M
  • EPS: ~USD 2.10

Investor Meaning

The company achieves platform-level valuation logic, with share prices exceeding USD 100 and multiple exit pathways opening.

Base, Downside, and Upside Scenarios (Investor-Safe Framing)

Base Case (Public Anchor)

  • 70% hospital occupancy
  • Conservative device adoption
  • Net margins ~27–30%

Outcome

  • Revenue: ~USD 750M
  • Net profit: ~USD 210M
  • Strong EPS and valuation justification

Downside Case (Credibility Builder)

  • 70% Hospital occupancy: 55–60%occupancy
  • Slower device adoption
  • US hospital delayed by 12 months
  • Net margins: ~22–24%

Outcome

  • Revenue: ~USD 400–450M
  • Still profitable
  • Multi-hundred-million valuation intact
  • Early investors still see meaningful upside
  • capital is protected even if execution is slower.

Upside Case (Not Pitched First, but Real)

  • 80% hospital occupancy
  • Faster device adoption
  • Two international hospitals
  • Higher subscription ARPU
  • Net margins: ~32–35%

Outcome

  • Revenue: USD 1–1.2B+
  • Platform-level valuation
  • Share price potential USD 120–150+
  • This is where strategic acquirers and global funds engage.
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